top of page
Search
Writer's pictureAlpesh Patel

Good Financial Stocks According to Goldmans (Accuracy: I like a couple of them)

Updated: Nov 15, 2023

Goldman Sachs says these are the 12 best growth stocks amongst financials as the turmoil surrounding Silicon Valley Bank rocks the sector.


So what are they? Let's look at the data; those are the names, and let me give you my analysis.




They've looked at the fundamentals, they've looked at valuation, revenue, growth - all of those kinds of factors. I'm going to go through each one of these and see if any of them meet my approved list, which is a lot more stringent than Goldman Sachs because I use these criteria as well as my own


They start with Progressive DC earnings growth of 31 in the year ahead percentage of buy ratings 33. Let's have a look at this; it's got a solid upward trend the worry that I have with this company and why I am going to disagree with Goldman's on this is while that fantastic trend is there, and that provides some great support that is looking overbought that is looking like something which could fall off. Remember, I'm looking at a 12-month cycle here, so I'm not just picking this for the week ahead; I'm looking up to 12 months ahead. So, I'm going to say no; I think Goldman's are wrong on that one.


Let's look at Everest Real Lawyer Insurance Company, percentage of buy ratings is 50 earnings grow by 24. Of course, some of that will be factored into the price. It's taken a hit since Silicon Valley Bank and all the rest of it and again looks overbought. I'm afraid that's the monthly MACD, each one of these bars is a week in the price moves, of course, and I fear it could do something like this. I'm not sufficiently confident on that one.


Arch capital 79 buy ratings Property and Casualty Insurance companies very much in the financial services space. Again, it had been doing incredibly well to the extent it had started skyrocketing upwards. But again, now overbought. So I think they're a bit late to the party are Goldman's on this one, I'm afraid, and if anything, I suspect movement is slow. Remember, I'm looking for the whole year ahead, so for those of you who say, well, wait a minute, when was this analysis made, it's on the 22nd of March, so this might have moved a bit lower since then, but that's not what I'm looking I'm looking at this kind of time frame far further ahead.


Arthur J Gallagher Insurance Brokers again, one I've liked very much in the past by ratings 68. Let's look at the analysis on this; you can see why I've liked it in the past. I've done quite a bit of analysis on it myself; you've got that strong support there again, looking at a bit weak there, and as long as it stays in with that channel, it should still give us something of a return. Still, it's probably going to bounce here first and then go here, and that would be the bear case, the base case, and the bull case. You work it out. I will continue with this one and give it a yes.


MasterCard, you know who they are; okay, you can see the percentage of buy ratings. Obviously, there's also been some flight to safety with this one. Of course, it's a stock I own, so I better declare that straight away, and that's where we are on that one. We got in there with a 30 projection. It's already given us that we're still holding on, and if anything looks oversold while it may dip for the next few weeks, I expect a resumption back upwards. Even if it dips below there, I would expect to go there, and I'm not saying it will reach an all-time high by the end of this year, but certainly, that should be the direction of travel, so continue liking that one.


WR Berkeley, okay, that's 60 by ratings. Look at this; it's fallen off a cliff, that's a double top, and that should suggest passing that distance down there will project to the downside, and it should hit those kinds of levels. This would mean that 15 drops further, and you can see that it's likely to go. So I don't like the short-term outlook in this at all because I expect further falls, so I'm going to stay out of that one.


Charles Schwab has been taking a bit of a pounding recently as well, thanks to rumors and the like, and you can see what's happened with that you can see with the monthly. This is what worried me earlier with some of the overbought ones with the monthly MACD; the mountain came lower while it tried to recover it didn't quite make it, so I think there might be a time to get it, and you might say because it's dropped so much should we get in well it's only brought you back to January 2021 levels so I'm going to stay out of this one and say no not yet they might be right later in the year we'll reevaluate it.


Huntington monk shares Regional Bank. Are you kidding me with some of the regional Banks? They obviously think it's safe; you saw that the regional banks have got smashed. This is a classic punt. I'm not into punting, so I won't go into it, but I can see some people would say hell get in at 10, get out at 15. Why not, even if it drops to as long as it doesn't go bust? Even if it drops to a six, you're still; if you got in at ten going as low as six and still looking to get out at 15 that'd give you a 50 retent, not one for me; I don't like that kind of wild swings.


Thank you very much, Chub, something my cousins call me Property and Casualty Insurance; where are we on you, Mr. Chubb well, again, fallen off a fair bit. You probably know them because of the locks. But you might Globe Life life, and health insurance company, Globe Life, what have we got on that one again fell off a bit; they think it's undervalued. It's overvalued in the short term enough that I don't want to look at it at the moment might be something worth looking at again in August, but not for the moment.


So we've got that there that could well replicate to the downside, which would mean a fall to about 148 approximately, and that's looking lower for those into those things that is a bearish Divergence uh as well, so yeah thanks, but I'm going to stay clear of this, for now. These are ones that I've owned in the past, and you can see where those are all charts we got in previously, and indeed it did that. I did it a lot quicker than we thought. We thought it would be a 26 return in a year, but it just bounced off, and now it's coming back down. It's probably going to. I don't think it'll go all the way down there. It'll probably go to about here before going back up again, so yeah, I'm going to like this one.


I'm going to like that one got a few more Hartford Financial Services, okay, again, fallen off a cliff. You can see the support over here. The problem is I have overbought; looking lower, there are better stocks than that, and one of these is on my approved filtered list visa, and Everest reinsurance is on the approved filtered list. What we did with the approved filtered list was we went through them, and then we went deeper into the charts.


As you can see, that can overrule the fundamentals. The fundamentals we look at are evaluation, growth, income, cash flow, and those that are Everest again so that you can see it's overbought, and I'd probably say even though it's on my list a proof list the graphs at the moment overrule that.


I'm going to stay clear even though it's significantly undervalued; look at that, you might say, well, I'm going to overrule you are pushing it's on your proof filtered list. The charts in the short term don't look good but look at the undervaluation on discount cash flow basis.


We'll get in and then Visa again, which I showed you earlier, which is on the approved list. It's moving around in that channel, and that's fine. It's a safer bet, even though it's currently somewhat overvalued.


Look at the campaign for a million for lots of free resources to help people become better investors and Traders. When you look at those links, you'll also get a free copy to download my book published by the Financial Times, The Mind of a Trader, lessons and training strategy from the world's leading Trader.


Alpesh Patel OBE


Comments

bottom of page